Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence
von: Bjoern Bartels, Ulrich Ermel, Peter Sandborn, Michael G. Pecht
Wiley, 2012
ISBN: 9781118275443
Sprache: Englisch
290 Seiten, Download: 8976 KB
Format: PDF, auch als Online-Lesen
geeignet für:
Wieder verfügbar ab: 10.05.2024 13:04
| Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence | 5 | ||
| Contents | 7 | ||
| Preface | 15 | ||
| 1: Introduction to Obsolescence Problems | 17 | ||
| 1.1: Definition of Obsolescence | 17 | ||
| 1.2: Categorization of Obsolescence Types | 19 | ||
| 1.3: Definition of Obsolescence Management | 20 | ||
| 1.4: Categorization of Obsolescence Management Approaches | 21 | ||
| 1.5: Historical Perspective on Obsolescence | 22 | ||
| 1.6: Occurrence of Obsolescence | 24 | ||
| 1.6.1: Technological Evolution | 24 | ||
| 1.6.2: Technological Revolutions | 24 | ||
| 1.6.3: Market Forces | 24 | ||
| 1.6.4: Environmental Policies and Restrictions | 24 | ||
| 1.6.5: Allocation | 25 | ||
| 1.6.6: Planned Obsolescence | 27 | ||
| 1.7: Product Sectors Affected by Obsolescence Problems | 27 | ||
| 1.8: Parts Affected by Obsolescence Problems | 29 | ||
| 1.8.1: Electronic Part Obsolescence | 29 | ||
| 1.8.2: Software Obsolescence | 31 | ||
| 1.8.3: Textile and Mechanical Part Obsolescence | 32 | ||
| 2: Part Change and Discontinuation Management | 33 | ||
| 2.1: The Change Process | 34 | ||
| 2.2: Change-Control Policies of Major Part Manufacturers | 34 | ||
| 2.3: Change-Notification Policies of Major Companies | 35 | ||
| 2.3.1: Differences by Manufacturer | 35 | ||
| 2.3.2: Differences by Division or Manufacturing Location | 37 | ||
| 2.3.3: Differences by Customer Type | 38 | ||
| 2.3.4: Differences by Geographical Location | 38 | ||
| 2.3.5: Distributors | 39 | ||
| 2.3.6: Contract Manufacturers | 39 | ||
| 2.4: Change-Notification | 40 | ||
| 2.4.1: Industry Standard Process Change-Notification | 40 | ||
| 2.4.1.1: Electronic Industries Alliance | 41 | ||
| 2.4.1.2: U.S. Military | 43 | ||
| 2.5: Change-Notification Paths | 43 | ||
| 2.5.1: Direct to Equipment Manufacturers | 44 | ||
| 2.5.2: Via Distributors | 44 | ||
| 2.5.3: Via Contract Manufacturers | 45 | ||
| 2.5.4: Via Independent Services | 45 | ||
| 2.6: Examples of Common Changes | 45 | ||
| 2.6.1: Fabrication Changes | 46 | ||
| 2.6.2: Die Revisions | 46 | ||
| 2.6.3: Changes to Assembly/Test Locations | 47 | ||
| 2.6.4: Changes to Assembly Materials | 47 | ||
| 2.6.5: Packing, Marking, and Shipping Changes | 48 | ||
| 3: Introduction to Electronic Part Product Life Cycles | 49 | ||
| 3.1: Product Life Cycle Stages | 50 | ||
| 3.1.1: Introduction Stage | 52 | ||
| 3.1.2: Growth Stage | 52 | ||
| 3.1.3: Maturity Stage | 54 | ||
| 3.1.4: Decline Stage | 54 | ||
| 3.1.5: Phase-Out Stage | 54 | ||
| 3.1.6: Discontinuance and Obsolescence | 55 | ||
| 3.2: Special Cases of the Product Life Cycle Curve | 55 | ||
| 3.3: Product Life Cycle Stages as a Basis for Forecasting | 56 | ||
| 4: Obsolescence Forecasting Methodologies | 57 | ||
| 4.1: Obsolescence Forecasting—Parts with Evolutionary Parametric Drivers | 58 | ||
| 4.1.1: Basic Life Cycle Curve Forecasting Method | 58 | ||
| 4.1.1.1: Step 1: Identify Part/Technology Group | 58 | ||
| 4.1.1.2: Step 2: Identify the Part's Primary and Secondary Attributes | 60 | ||
| 4.1.1.3: Step 3: Obtain Sales Data Associated with the Primary Attribute | 62 | ||
| 4.1.1.4: Step 4: Construct the Life Cycle Curve and Determine Parameters | 62 | ||
| 4.1.1.5: Step 5: Determine the Zone of Obsolescence | 63 | ||
| 4.1.1.6: Step 6: Modify the Zone of Obsolescence | 64 | ||
| 4.1.1.7: Summary | 66 | ||
| 4.1.2: Advanced Life Cycle Curve Method | 67 | ||
| 4.1.2.1: Determining the Window of Obsolescence via Data Mining | 68 | ||
| 4.1.2.2: Application of Data Mining Determined Windows of Obsolescence to Memory Modules | 70 | ||
| 4.2: Obsolescence Forecasting—Parts without Evolutionary Parametric Drivers | 72 | ||
| 4.2.1: Procurement Lifetime | 72 | ||
| 4.2.2: Electronic Part Introduction Date and Obsolescence Date Data | 73 | ||
| 4.2.3: Determining Mean Procurement Lifetimes | 74 | ||
| 4.2.4: An Interpretation of Procurement Lifetime and Worst-Case Forecasts | 79 | ||
| 4.2.5: Part Type Specific Results | 82 | ||
| 4.2.6: Discussion and Conclusions | 85 | ||
| 4.3: Non-Database Obsolescence Forecasting Methodology | 86 | ||
| 4.3.1: Forecasting Process | 86 | ||
| 4.3.2: Step 1: Identify Part/Technology Group | 86 | ||
| 4.3.3: Step 2: Obtain Forecasting Data | 87 | ||
| 4.3.4: Step 3: Estimated EOL Date and Risk of Obsolescence | 89 | ||
| 4.3.5: ERP System Modification | 91 | ||
| 4.3.6: Discussion and Conclusion | 92 | ||
| 5: Case Study Hardware Forecasts and Trends | 93 | ||
| 5.1: Dynamic RAMs (DRAMs) | 93 | ||
| 5.1.1: Types of DRAMs | 94 | ||
| 5.1.2: Market and Technology Trends | 94 | ||
| 5.1.3: Application of the Forecasting Methodology | 97 | ||
| 5.1.4: Discussion of DRAM Forecasts | 99 | ||
| 5.2: Static Random Access Memories (SRAMs) | 100 | ||
| 5.2.1: Types of SRAMs | 101 | ||
| 5.2.2: The SRAM Market | 102 | ||
| 5.2.3: Application of the Forecasting Methodology | 104 | ||
| 5.2.4: Discussion of SRAM Forecasts | 107 | ||
| 5.3: Non-Volatile Memories | 110 | ||
| 5.3.1: Types of Non-Volatile Memories | 111 | ||
| 5.3.1.1: EEPROM | 111 | ||
| 5.3.1.2: Flash Memory | 112 | ||
| 5.3.2: The Non-Volatile Memory Market | 113 | ||
| 5.3.3: Application of the Life Cycle Forecasting Methodology | 114 | ||
| 5.3.4: Determining the Zone of Obsolescence | 117 | ||
| 5.3.5: Discussion of Non-Volatile Memory Forecasts | 119 | ||
| 5.4: Microprocessors | 121 | ||
| 5.4.1: Types of Microprocessors | 123 | ||
| 5.4.2: The Microprocessor Market | 123 | ||
| 5.4.3: Application of Forecasting Methodology | 124 | ||
| 5.4.4: Determining the Zone of Obsolescence | 129 | ||
| 5.4.5: Discussion of Microprocessor Forecasts | 129 | ||
| 5.5: Microcontrollers and Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) | 131 | ||
| 5.5.1: Type of Microcontrollers | 131 | ||
| 5.5.1.1: Embedded Microcontrollers | 132 | ||
| 5.5.1.2: External Memory Microcontrollers | 132 | ||
| 5.5.2: The Microcontroller Market | 132 | ||
| 5.5.3: Overview of Digital Signal Processors | 134 | ||
| 5.5.4: Application of the Life Cycle Forecasting Methodology | 134 | ||
| 5.5.5: Determining the Zone of Obsolescence | 135 | ||
| 5.5.6: Discussion of Microcontroller and DSP Forecasts | 136 | ||
| 5.6: Logic Parts | 136 | ||
| 5.6.1: Types of Logic Parts | 136 | ||
| 5.6.2: The Logic Part Market | 142 | ||
| 5.6.3: Application of Forecasting Methodology | 142 | ||
| 5.6.4: Discussion of Logic Part Forecasts | 144 | ||
| 5.7: Analog Parts | 145 | ||
| 5.7.1: Types of Analog Parts | 146 | ||
| 5.7.2: The Analog Part Market | 146 | ||
| 5.7.3: Application of Forecasting Methodology | 147 | ||
| 5.7.4: Determining the Zone of Obsolescence | 149 | ||
| 5.7.5: Discussion of Analog Forecasts | 151 | ||
| 5.8: Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) | 152 | ||
| 5.8.1: Types of ASICs | 152 | ||
| 5.8.1.1: Full-Custom ASICs | 153 | ||
| 5.8.1.2: Semi-Custom ASICs | 153 | ||
| 5.8.1.3: Programmable Logic Devices | 154 | ||
| 5.8.2: The ASIC Market | 155 | ||
| 5.8.3: Application of Life Cycle Forecasting Methodology | 155 | ||
| 5.8.4: Discussion of ASIC Forecasts | 156 | ||
| 6: Software Obsolescence | 159 | ||
| 6.1: The Root Causes of Software Obsolescence | 161 | ||
| 6.2: Software Obsolescence Mechanisms | 162 | ||
| 6.2.1: Software Purchasing Obsolescence Mechanism | 164 | ||
| 6.2.2: Software Support Obsolescence Mechanism | 165 | ||
| 6.2.3: Software Compatibility Obsolescence Mechanism | 167 | ||
| 6.2.4: Software Infrastructure Obsolescence Mechanism | 169 | ||
| 6.2.5: Software Distribution Obsolescence Mechanism | 170 | ||
| 6.3: Discussion | 171 | ||
| 7: Reactive Obsolescence Management | 173 | ||
| 7.1: Change and Discontinuance Notifications | 174 | ||
| 7.2: Obsolescence Recovery (Mitigation) Tactics | 176 | ||
| 7.2.1: Negotiating with the Manufacturer | 178 | ||
| 7.2.2: Existing Stock | 178 | ||
| 7.2.3: Reclamation | 179 | ||
| 7.2.4: Alternate Parts | 179 | ||
| 7.2.5: Part Substitution | 180 | ||
| 7.2.6: Uprating | 182 | ||
| 7.2.7: Aftermarket Sources | 184 | ||
| 7.2.8: Emulation | 190 | ||
| 7.2.9: Redesign | 193 | ||
| 7.2.10: Reverse-Engineering | 196 | ||
| 7.2.11: Lifetime Buys/Bridge Buys | 197 | ||
| 7.3: Selecting the Proper Reactive Obsolescence Management Strategy | 202 | ||
| 7.3.1: Part Discontinuance Status | 202 | ||
| 7.3.2: Degree of Life Cycle Mismatch | 202 | ||
| 7.3.3: Number of Products Using the Obsolete Part | 202 | ||
| 7.3.4: Volume Requirement | 203 | ||
| 7.3.5: Product Support | 203 | ||
| 7.3.6: Number of Obsolete Parts in a System | 203 | ||
| 7.3.7: Future Market | 203 | ||
| 7.3.8: Turnaround Time Available for Resolution | 204 | ||
| 7.3.9: Requalification Requirements | 204 | ||
| 7.4: Reactive Obsolescence Management Checklist | 204 | ||
| 7.5: Reactive Obsolescence Management Guideline | 204 | ||
| 8: Proactive Obsolescence Management | 209 | ||
| 8.1: Members of the Proactive Obsolescence Management Board | 210 | ||
| 8.2: Schedule and Milestones | 210 | ||
| 8.3: Initial Obsolescence Risk Analysis | 211 | ||
| 8.3.1: BOM Management | 211 | ||
| 8.3.2: Material Risk Index | 212 | ||
| 8.3.3: Health Monitoring | 212 | ||
| 8.4: Tracking Parts' Availability | 213 | ||
| 8.5: Product Obsolescence and Aftersales | 213 | ||
| 9: Strategic Obsolescence Management | 215 | ||
| 9.1: Applying Project Management Principles to Obsolescence Management | 216 | ||
| 9.2: Initiation Stage | 218 | ||
| 9.2.1: Auditing | 218 | ||
| 9.2.2: Raising Awareness | 220 | ||
| 9.3: Planning and Design Stage | 221 | ||
| 9.3.1: Design Products to Avoid Obsolescence | 221 | ||
| 9.3.2: Process Analyses | 222 | ||
| 9.3.2.1: Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagram | 222 | ||
| 9.3.2.2: Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) | 222 | ||
| 9.3.2.3: Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) | 224 | ||
| 9.4: Execution Stage | 226 | ||
| 9.4.1: Forecasting the Product Life Cycle | 226 | ||
| 9.4.2: Parts Selection Process | 226 | ||
| 9.4.3: Demand Specification | 228 | ||
| 9.4.4: Supplier Management | 229 | ||
| 9.4.5: Contractual Language | 230 | ||
| 9.4.6: Special Obsolescence Management Capabilities | 232 | ||
| 9.4.7: Streamlining Regulatory Procedures | 232 | ||
| 9.4.8: Management above the Piece-Part Level | 233 | ||
| 9.4.9: Design Refresh Planning Optimization | 233 | ||
| 9.4.9.1: Porter Model for Refresh Planning | 234 | ||
| 9.4.9.2: The MOCA Refresh Planning Model | 236 | ||
| 9.4.9.3: Material Risk Index (MRI) Model | 238 | ||
| 9.4.10: Open Systems | 239 | ||
| 9.4.11: Hardware-Software Independence | 240 | ||
| 9.4.12: Responsibilities of Customers and End Users | 240 | ||
| 9.5: Monitoring and Controlling Stage | 241 | ||
| 9.5.1: Economics of Obsolescence Management Strategies | 241 | ||
| 9.5.2: Cost Variations at the Part or Component Level | 243 | ||
| 9.5.3: Cost Variations at the System or Module Level | 243 | ||
| 9.5.4: Cost Variations due to Economic Policy Factors | 244 | ||
| 9.5.5: Cost-Benefit Analysis | 244 | ||
| 9.6: Strategic Obsolescence Management Guidelines | 245 | ||
| 10: Obsolescence Management Standards and Organizations | 249 | ||
| 10.1: Helpful Standards for Obsolescence Management | 249 | ||
| 10.1.1: Defense Standardization Program Office (SD-22) | 250 | ||
| 10.1.2: Electronic Industries Alliance (EIA) | 250 | ||
| 10.1.3: Joint Electron Device Engineering Council (JEDEC) | 251 | ||
| 10.1.4: International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) | 251 | ||
| 10.1.5: DIN Deutsches Institut für Normung e.V. | 252 | ||
| 10.1.6: British Standards Institution (BSI) | 252 | ||
| 10.1.7: STACK International | 252 | ||
| 10.1.8: Electronics Industry Quality Conference (EIQC) | 252 | ||
| 10.1.9: Airlines Electronic Engineering Committee (AEEC) | 253 | ||
| 10.1.10: VMEbus International Trade Association (VITA) | 253 | ||
| 10.2: Helpful Organizations for Obsolescence Management | 253 | ||
| 10.2.1: U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) | 253 | ||
| 10.2.2: Government Industry Data Exchange Program (GIDEP) | 256 | ||
| 10.2.3: Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) | 256 | ||
| 10.2.4: Defense Microelectronics Activity (DMEA) | 256 | ||
| 10.2.5: UK Ministry of Defence (UK MoD) | 257 | ||
| 10.2.6: Component Obsolescence Group (COG) | 258 | ||
| 10.2.7: University of Maryland—CALCE | 259 | ||
| 10.2.8: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) | 259 | ||
| References | 261 | ||
| Index | 283 |
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